Trees Don’t Grow Gold

The fall in the materials and energy sectors was not matched by the finance sector. Financial stocks were down, but not nearly as much as anything commodity related. That’s worth noting. There are at least some sectors of the market taking note of underlying events in the real economy.

Energy and materials are not sectors likely to be driven by enthusiasm for more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. In fact, the fall in commodities and most of the stocks in extractive industries can be seen as a market repudiation of the healing power of QE. Bernanke may be pumping up financial stocks and financial earnings, but he’s doing a whole lot of nothing for the well-being of the real economy.

It should be noted that all of this price action in gold, commodities and the stock market happened before two explosions near the finish line of the Boston Marathon late Monday afternoon. Markets have become less sensitive to these types of events over the years. But the explosions in Boston will certainly contribute to a sense of fear and uncertainty in the markets. In the past decade, those two sentiments have usually been accompanied by rising gold prices. But gold is currently in the grip of an epic liquidation.

Who is selling and why? Those are interesting questions. But ultimately, both are unknowable. It could be leveraged hedge funds who were long gold or who used gold as collateral to lever up on stocks. It could be owners of large positions in ETFs. It could be manipulation. It could be panic.

What are the “fundamentals”? That gold is an asset that is no one else’s liability, for starters. Beyond that, the last month has provided you with evidence that in a pinch, the political and monetary authorities will confiscate your savings. Central banks across the planet continue to print money and monetize government debt. These are all facts too.

It tells you that the people who control and profit from the printing and use of paper money are willing to do just about anything to retain their rank and privilege. It’s their system, and it works well for them. They do not like the gold price acting as a signal of public confidence (or lack thereof) in paper money or public finances.

But take all the emotion of wild price swings out of it, if you can. Ask yourself whether you think paper money will gain or lose value over the next 10 years. And then ask yourself if you would rather have money in the bank or precious metals in your hands. The answer to that question will tell you all you need to know.